Steady Fall Housing Market Expected Across Canadian
Regions
As the long-anticipated decline in interest rates begins to
take effect, early reports from RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada
indicate steady housing market activity this fall. Average home prices are
expected to rise by one to six percent across most regions by year’s end.
Ahead of the next Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate
announcement on September 4, a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX revealed
that 16 percent of Canadians feel more confident about engaging in the real
estate market if they see a 100-basis-point cut to the BoC’s lending rate by
the end of the year.
Consumer Sentiment Entering the Fall Housing Market
With expected interest rate cuts on the horizon, confidence
among first-time homebuyers is growing. According to the Leger survey, 25
percent of Canadians are actively saving for a home, with younger Millennials
and Gen Zs (aged 18-24) showing the highest confidence at 35 percent.
Conversely, the survey also highlighted that current
homeowners may face challenges, with 14 percent indicating they need to renew
their mortgage soon. Due to the current high-interest rates, some may consider
selling their homes.
Financial priorities have shifted for many Canadians. While
25 percent still list homeownership as a top priority, it has been overshadowed
by day-to-day expenses such as utilities and food (58 percent), and travel (45
percent). The pursuit of affordability has led 28 percent of Canadians to
consider moving to another country, while 25 percent are reconsidering starting
a family due to housing affordability issues.
Survey Insights
“While consumer confidence is beginning to return this
season, the reality is that Canadians are still struggling with significant
housing affordability challenges due to a lack of supply. Lower borrowing costs
may help, but they won’t solve long-term affordability issues,” says Alexander.
“As buyers re-enter the market and absorb inventory, we’ll likely see upward
pressure on prices.”
“For the long-term health of Canada’s housing market, a
national housing strategy involving all levels of government is essential. In
the meantime, buyers should work with experienced real estate agents to
navigate the market’s cyclical ups and downs driven by supply and demand.”
Regional Housing Market Highlights
RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada provided an analysis
of their local markets from January to July 2024, offering year-over-year
comparisons and fall 2024 forecasts.
Market-by-Market Overview
Insights from RE/MAX brokers indicate that 33 percent of
Canadian housing markets are expected to be seller’s markets, although this may
shift as competition increases and market conditions evolve.
Between January and July 2024, 82 percent of regions
surveyed saw an increase in listings, ranging from 2.3 to 34.7 percent. Sales
transactions also rose, with increases of 3.1 to 7.4 percent in Atlantic
Canada, 3.4 to 30.9 percent in Western Canada, and 0.6 to 14.8 percent in
Ontario. However, larger Ontario markets like Toronto, Brampton, Durham Region,
Mississauga, Peterborough, and York Region experienced a downward trend in
sales.
